No time to pause

Brent crude has dipped again and that portends a stasis in global economy. Added to this is the end to Quantitative Easing in US and simultaneous fresh stimulus in Europe and Japan has created an unsteady monetary regime which creates disproportionate FI flows to our economy. These largely,go into Indian stocks that are notoriously over valued and not to enabling infrastruture projects that are needed to complement efforts at growth.. In the absence of tangible and forceful reforms /policies over a gamut of enablers : power,land acquisition ,labour ,skill upgrade , companies are loathe to expand capacity. As a result these speculative inflows , besides spurring inflation ,produce neither growth nor additional jobs.. Capital investments must be encouraged as never before and good governance is relevant here.We have a stable government now with a clear task ahead.There is a small window now,with lower fuel prices and 
falling global prices of farm produce ,that would keep inflation in check for a while. The next few months must trigger a spate of reform initiatives and necessarily lower key rates. We may not get such a scenario ,later.

Economic Times Nov 6
Financial Express Nov6

Electing complacency

BJP has its party and government set into one common mould .Its PM and its president are on round the clock election mode. Since the policies of UPA pass enough muster not to be tampered with ,the bureaucracy merely needs to be on routine watch and little else.Whereas the Congress had a silent PM who perhaps took some wrong decisions, the BJP has a full time  campaigner who seems to have little time left for them .With ministers under the oversight of the powerful PMO ,the outputs  from periodic elections overshadow theirs.Everything is placid and mundane and no whiff of change anywhere.The low crude prices adds to the complacency. With unending Indian elections we may uneventfully touch 2019 . We could then end up with a strong BJP and an indifferent economy. Much like the way a stronger UPA-II started off in 2009 over the euphoria of its previous avatar ,and then folded up.
Indian Express Nov 4

Easy money

Monetary measures,of the likes of Quantitative Easing of the US Fed  seek to increase the supply of credit and not an increase  of money supply to the economy .When Central Banks "stimulate" ,it is not about  physical currency but  a focus  on debt.   "Money"   in Banking , denotes  financial collateral /  equity capital. Central banks are not equipped to  increase the level of reserves, the prime means to circulate "liquidity", but  create only ledger money to prod the banking system into increased lending. Sadly though,the  liquidity through stimulus was largely  subverted by  the   finance  industry  getting preferential treatment from the government ,be it the massive  bailouts or the  right to borrow  huge amounts of  free money from the Central Banks for  risk free use. What was worse, banks then sat on idle cash ,not lending to the ground economy being overly concerned  about their balance sheets .While.the very purpose of banking  was  thus lost in default,an equal damage was caused by massive global transfers of dollar funds causing huge monetary and fiscal imbalances on lesser economies.We managed the post 2008 crisis well, but many nations could not and are still struggling 

Business Standard Nov 1

Leasing out to judiciary

.Its a sad reflection on us that after decades we are yet to get a grip over our financial systems.And now a  globalised economy has only added  mist to the maze. The intervention of the Apex court has not been too soon.It has managed to take away political overtones thus far dominating the issue of unaccounted money and  to restore a hitherto absent  focus on containing the problem. Hopefully we may see modest beginnings of a comprehensive approach by government(s) ,be it on  political funding, a tax regime that encourages evasion,vagueness in regulation that abets misuse of discretion and protracted bilateral agreements over flow of money between nations. The effort would be painstaking and  involve patience and  determination.But then India on 29 0ct 2014 failed to attend a meeting in Berlin of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 51 countries signed the agreement to share financial data and boost efforts to crack down on tax evasion inter alia requiring a commitment to follow international standards of confidentiality for information received relating to black money.The signatories were most European Union nations as well as tax havens like Liechenstein, British Virgin Island and the Cayman Island .The government has to show far greater commitment. .  The coal allocation mess has provided us lessons already.Apex court can only do that much and no more.It would be unfortunate if the judiciary is called upon too frequently to reset directions.
Financial Express Oct 31

Left-stay away from extremes

 History records that so long the Left stayed away from  the extremes of the Red ,it had gathered stature . Every time it reached out to red borders,it had steep slides.  The Left evolved as part of the Congress around 1920 and did well till it veered to too far left and lost heavy ground n 1928.It then moved to the center and prospered in the Congress collective. In 1942 it went fully Marxist ,even as to  dub Congress leaders as lackeys of the west, and as a consequence, lost its standing. Post the 1960s it re-allied with the Congress  to represent the trade mark red tint in Indian politics. For three decades the Left grew in clout as it had learnt to occupy the much sought after left-of- center space in a growing economy.Then came Singur as the CPI (M )  inexplicably ,went back to distant basics and took a sharp left turn on the pro-industry policy of its own CM in Bengal and in the process began to ebb yet again and its decision to withdraw support to UPA-I over the N'deal ,took the Left to a  near political rout .The Left had learnt its lessons repeatedly and yet is unable to resist the fatal charm of the extreme red . The CPI (M ) must realise that its comfort zone  is never  in extremes,but lies closer to the center.
Indian Express Oct 29

Wisdom in choice

.After the Maharashtra prelims ,the BJP needs singular clarity in choosing its live-in-partner for the finals. What Ram Vilas Paswan is to Bihar politics,the Pawars are to M'Rshtra, as a more massive version. Both have survived on stable vote banks on firm territory.The Congress had carried the baggage of NCP for so long, that it was inured.If only the UPA-II had wisely selected to forgo the last two years of its term ,split wth NCP and called early elections,it would have avoided the current ignominy. The BJP has easy lessons to learn; stay clear of the NCP . It would breathe far easier with the Sena . Udhav Thakre is    less wilier  and far above board than Sharad Pawar.Should for some reason the BJP does not pay heed,it ends up with a elusive foe within and an angry ally without . Congress would then be happy to see a fellow sufferer in its company.
Indian Express sept 22

New polarisation

The cold shouldering of the Sena by BJP and then the personal attacks on Modi by Uddhav Thakre were a part of the planned polarisation of the past master Amit Shah . The mock pre-poll tiff between the BJP and SS were  thus meant to keep votes straying away to Congress /NCP  has paid off. It is a backhanded compliment to the UPA-II policy of inclusiveness that had channeled welfare across the weaker sections as the BJP was aware of popular perception of its avowed pro-business slant . The bright spot in all this; a new wave polarisation through a larger agenda has come to replace the hackneyed and worn out caste / religious sequestration.That said the BJP did get away with the old formula in UP in the LS election. Credit must go to the BJP that prescribes medicines as per the illness and makes a success of it. May be because the BJP put its faith on  an younger generation ,with an assertive leader at the top.
 Mail Today Sept 20

Space research ,for every nation

In his speech after the success of putting Mangalyan into Martian orbit, the PM said that we may now be the envy of others.Outer space is too vast and mysterious for mankind to fritter away its composite knowledge and acumen in either mutual envy or a national ego. There have been incremental contributions by men transcending time and geography. The success or failure of missions by one, is that of the global scientific collective .Excessive hold- back of cutting edge technologies in space exploration from one another may be of transient help in spurring self sufficiency of a fellow  nation .The story of a two decade delay in developing our indigenous cryogenic engines,is a case in point . But the human collective then loses precious time in reinventing the wheel, perhaps  much too frequently and an otherwise intelligent planet Earth  lets slip opportunities ,so hard to come by in  the highly complex and challenging quest to conquer the infinite space around us..

Pub Business Standard Sept 18

Electorate - shangaied

  The ' major ' parties in M'Rashtra are making a travesty of  the state election  .Worse ,they  sincerely  think that they are dong  so  for the ultimate benefit of the electorate . The state is being shangaied  by a power driven political collective that is dismissive of that very electorate. Sadly,political egos and personal fancies are steering the course of the state.If the governance in the state had been indifferent with pre-poll alliances, the picture that would emerge with four of these ,and perhaps MNS, can only be a wild rugby scrum for grabbing pole position.The entry of just the AAP, has  Delhi motoring for months without even a Third party insurance and  the  people continue to  pay  for every mishap ,with neither traffic lights nor a policeman.Things could be no different in this western state.And not long ago we were upbeat in imagining Mumbai as another Shanghai in the making .Trust our politicians
to rudely interrupt our reverie

Yellow fever

Purchases of gold by the two largest sources of demand for gold, India and China, have fallen sharply ,abruptly halting a consumption boom that started six years ago with the onset of the financial crisis. Gold prices, just over $1600 an ounce  not too long ago, are now  way below their all-time high of $1920 .With weakening Indian and Chinese demand, and a price stagnating , speculative demand for gold may be poised to collapse, triggering a self-reinforcing downward spiral. That’s what happened after gold peaked at about $900 an ounce in the early 1980s, ushering in a long downward slide in which gold lost almost 75% of its peak value. That process was helped by historically high real interest rates, could mean that the current gold bubble  may burst even with historically low  rates.
Two opposing  market segments that are dominated by inconsistent expectations. Bond markets are dominated by one of low inflation, while gold markets ;commodities, futures,  on medium-term hyperinflation. With generous doses of Quantitative Easing  in the US , the price of gold could now be highly volatile and tending down. It is very difficult to explain the apparently inconsistent expectations underlying the bond markets and the gold markets and abundant caution may well lie in selling.And that comes with even more unstable gold pricing.

China-India discourse

.The Xi -Modi meet came with new expectations, as both are young, in their sixties and elevated to top office within a year of each other.They were seen to be forward looking and relatively free from burdens of history.That said ,our equations be it with Pakistan or China ,are necessarily entangled in a long and shared history of lost opportunities.Sadly, bipartite talks have always been largely hijacked by hawks. If an ascendant military contributes to a hard line in Pakistan ,the communist high echelons in China,have had a set thought process .The very recent Chinese incursion and its timing on the eve of a dialogue,is not new .It seems that the Mao Red book with its ideological hard line and provocative might ,remains their primer while we go by pragmatism laced with firmness.China is India’s largest trading 
partner.  With both sides looking to scale up bilateral trade from around $66 to $100 blln by 2015, Xi and Modi must persist with their dialogue and  break newer grounds over time, with mutually complementary statesmanship. Sino -Indian equations stay set for the long haul.

India-US seek that political glue

     Mr Modi is due to visit the US shortly. At the turn of 1950,as we became a republic ,both the US with its  democratic capitalism of and the socialist USSR had   extended friendship   Unlike purely political ties of a NATO or economic ones as the BRICS , Indo -US relations have been far deeper and multi -planar and for long..Nehruvian non -alignment had served us well in handling our geo-politics till the ' 90s .With increasing  globalisation since and our economy rapidly growing, the relations  need re tuning. The strong ideological bonds with Russia have transcended time.Sadly ,the last decade witnessed a cooling off in Indo-US engagement, perhaps more due to the US being embroiled in its internal politics and economic slide.On top of this the US  has  been  shifting  the epicenter of its geo-political interests away from this sub continent. Its abdication from Afghanistan is a pointer and so is its diminishing attention over Pakistan ,post Bin Laden. A shared political dais is a prerequisite for large nations to have enduring relationship. Without a common minimum political agenda, we can but find transient relief in just a N'Deal or in   purchase and trade . 

         The welcome visit of Mr Xi Jinping was also accompanied by  unwelcome ones into our borders. Little seems to have changed since 1962 !.With the Afghan front coming to a crescendo this year and  growing  internal troubles  in Pakistan and given a powerful and unreliable China , a new politico-economic paradigm in Indo -US relations needs to be set to secure our interests Reinventing Indo -US ties lies in jointly aligning deeper and long term geo-political interests, by both the nations. 

Market must outgrow the teens

. It reflects poorly on an economy with  strong on going fundamentals  that waits with trepidation  for a regime change  and within days thereafter, chases  every other stock to new  highs !.That swings will be wilder on  say an Israeli- Palestinian flare up or even a substantial  QE taper in the US is understandable but to be inexplicably swayed purely by endemic factors, must ride on reckless hope and perhaps greed. That said,  weak fault lines  continue to exist, be it in the narrow band of retail speculative stock transactions  or the  dated 30 component Sensex and in other sectoral shares as well.  Sensex  seems to be largely reduced to a day to day  ATM for retail  investors , which is fine except that swings then  tend to become hugely separated from the core value  of a stock . Indian stock markets still remain tied to its nascent days of  a command economy wherein speculation and short haul political developments  were content to feed on each other .The mindset  continues to operate and  small investors  keep getting  hurt.It is time that our stock indices get reworked and investors get wiser  to a regimen where  fundamentals start prevailing over raw speculation.

PROFESSIONALISM

How would we react to say a list culled from visitor's diary of the Chief of RAW or such other investigative / sensitive agencies . I am sure these agencies  would have put in place appropriate safeguards to such or similar information  that can emanate from compulsions of their operating exigencies and methodology.In the case in point, such recorded details need not have been rendered  vulnerable to being  brought to light in the first place. This is to be seen divorced from the age old debate of on how much  politically en-wrapped such agencies have or have not, since come to be.  Agencies dealing with  matters of internal /external security and high crime need to be uncompromisingly professional ,in every way.

OUR MARKETS MUST MATURE BEYOND ITS TEENS

 It reflects poorly on an economy with  strong on going fundamentals  that waits with trepidation  for a regime change  and within days thereafter, chases  every other stock to new  highs !.That swings will be wilder on  say an Israeli- Palestinian flare up or even a substantial  QE taper in the US is understandable but to be inexplicably swayed purely by endemic factors, must ride on reckless hope and perhaps greed. That said,  weak fault lines  continue to exist, be it in the narrow band of retail speculative stock transactions  or the  dated 30 component Sensex and in other sectoral shares as well.  Sensex  seems to be largely reduced to a day to day  ATM for retail  investors , which is fine except that swings then  tend to become hugely separated from the core value  of a stock . Indian stock markets still remain tied to its nascent days of  a command economy wherein speculation and short haul political developments  were content to feed on each other .The mindset  continues to operate and  small investors  keep getting  hurt.It is time that our stock indices get reworked and investors get wiser  to a regimen where  fundamentals start prevailing over raw speculation.

Beware the fatal wake of EU

Nations go through economic cycles. The US economy  re railing itself  after six years of struggle is  forecast to grow 3% in 2014,and  Japan after two full decades ,at 1.8%.  China will touch around 7% in 2014–15,  Brazil, Russia and India, are are in contention with  structural reforms  to regain the lost growth trajectory .All these nations are in command over their own monetary / fiscal policies and over time  will help predicate global growth , But not so the eurozone, that contributes as  high as 25 % to world trade.Shackled at birth, the EU has a single monetary policy and 11 different fiscal policies.That was the genesis of the great euro debt that at $14 trlln  equals the US .Germany may reach  respectable growth this year,  Italy, France and Spain.will remain very weak at around 0.5%.

         When the EU currency was created in 1998  it was suspected that  this could prove a recipe for individual profligacy of euro countries that are able to borrow at lower rates than their ability to repay.   There is little doubt that the  euro economic tale would continue to twist . Germany's reluctance to act as the family head and lift up other members, is already dragging down its own economy.Even Britain , in spite of being a non-EU economy, is suffering no less due to its age old geographic ties with the group.The only hope for the EU nations lies in either a dramatic economic recovery of all others  in  quick time  to enable dissolve / ameliorate  their huge debt burden by sheer sentiment or the Euro  boat  capsizes leaving some to sink and others to swim to shore.The global collective can no longer afford to merely watch as the EU totters from one crisis to another and in the end, its fatal wake pulls down many more

Reclaiming a PM

Three months into this new government,no holistic picture emerges on our political dispensation. The pattern is uneven and many ends stay loose. On the one hand Modi's party and Parivar seem to be driving non-growth linked agenda ,be it  Art 370,slant in  Education policies,LOP ,judicial appointments ,independently and on their own steam. As the PM stays  quiet through all this they  can come under the notion  that Modi has been commissioned by them for the exclusive and  limited purpose of  delivering on growth that would yield high  dividends in 2019.
     On the other hand , Modi perhaps  in his primary zeal for avant garde governance for growth , has decided to don the suit of CEO India Inc.,keeping  the PM's wear in the closet. Modi's penchant of operating through the bureaucracy rather than his ministers, is a double edged sword.His  Secretarys to GOI  seem to be eager to compress time without factoring in larger socio-political aspects that need to be sieved through by experienced minister- politicians.That filter is seemingly getting bypassed. 
         In both cases ,an  impression  that others could over time succeed in wielding the PM and not the other way around , could soon  gain ground. And worse,the lack of opposition numbers  removes one more check on both policy and execution  The nation will do well to quickly reclaim Modi ,its elected PM.

Pub Fin Express --Aug 12

http://epaper.financialexpress.com/319626/Indian-Express/12-August-2014#page/8/1

Is government being juvenile ?

 There is an undue haste in seeking to reduce the legal limit for juvenile delinquency /crime from 18 yrs to 16.This raises questions on the state of our mindset as a nation of yore. Clearly  modern society is in a phase of abdication as opposed to  involvement  in upgrading societal mores,that our older generations preached and practiced.In an era of the live-in mode where even  the two  partners owe nothing to each other ,how do we expect to own up ,nurture and guide our growing minors. In typical disconnect ,we overnight decide to abandon the sub-eighteens to perdition by  arbitrarily lowering the age of prosecution  for" serious '  crimes.Our   firman  is no wiser than Marie Antoinette ordering a switch from bread to cakes ! A society that does not  to uplift itself through introspection,perseverance and wisdom must end up  in severe asphyxiation  to eventually die.Price for today's hasty politics will be paid by tomorrow's generations.
Pub Asian Age Aug 10
http://onlineepaper.asianage.com/articledetailpage.aspx?id=786061

Mirage of insurance reform

 On Insurance reforms, is there any difference in what UPA-I   did to NDA and NDA did to UPA-II and now that Congress is doing to BJP. Do we seriously believe that any political party is for reforms in this sector.The state owned LIC alone plans a corpus of 32 lac Cr by 2020, from current level of 14.8 lac Cr ,of which around 15 % is into equity . This fiscal alone it will invest 60,000 Cr in equities.The power of the government to control investments both for its purposes and for selected equity prop ups is too tempting to stand dilution and competition. The first post Independence scam related to LIC and there have been more.One has a feeling that Corporates too are rather cold to external agencies that would be more professional and exacting.Who better than the  common man to be left holding the bag like it happened in Unit 64. Much noise and activity will continue in Insurance reforms,but hardly concrete action 

Pub Business Standard Aug 7

http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/letters-insurance-sector-reforms-114080701457_1.html

WTO- Regulation not by deterrence

From the GATT era of battling tariff barriers in International Trade,the universal perception across trading nations has remained strait jacketed. Post  2008 global downturn ,disagreements still continue in the WTO,particularly in agriculture subsidies .The developed countries give $400 billion of subsidies every year to farmers but are still considered compliant with WTO rules because they opt for income support to their farmers instead of providing subsidies like India.In these skirmishes the larger battle for expanded wold trade is lost.  While individual nations would gladly tap into the advantages provided by  globalisation ,they show reluctance to share common problems in the interests of increased  trade.  Global trade has steadily weakened,  almost  stagnant in the last six months.  In good times, the trade generated by a country’s growth bolsters global growth.  As growths decline it is  followed by a decline in trade  thus  setting up a vicious cycle that skews progressive  discussions in trade fora,that sees deterrence as an operative part of trade  regulation. 

Pub Economic Times Aug 4

http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/NasData//PUBLICATIONS/THEECONOMICTIMES/BANGALORE/2014/08/04/PagePrint/04_08_2014_012_f570bdc571ad7f4443f7e724d2ac8240.pdf

Flipping quality ?

Flipkart, with an eye popping $ 1 blln venture funding enters the club of E-Retail  with a bang and adds to the competition. These Companies seem to be selling everything under the sun.With such variety and vast outsourcing is there a system of quality assay in place ?. Just because goods are priced  cheaper, is the customer  resigned to getting  pot-luck quality .These companies offer to take back goods from an unsatisfied customer ,but  mere return is the worst  professional approach to customer servicing. There could be a rider on licenses for E-Retail, requiring Quality certification and Audit akin to say an ISO-9000 on products they sell,to guard customer interests.Companies that  fashion their trade to customer concerns  will  stay in reckoning, others might fold up over time .Investors and venture promoters  would hopefully keep this in mind.

Pub Business Standard Aug 4

http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/letters-quality-check-in-e-tailing-114080300720_1.html

BRICS- Owning a bank invites responsibilities

.With  more nations touching higher growth trajectories, endemic economic blocs are being created with common goals ..BRICS , was founded for encouraging commercial, political and cultural cooperation between its member nations who represent  18 percent of the world economy.,in comparison to EU at  23 percent  Brics bank has now come into being like the ECB  for the EU. But the EU also had a  single monetary policy  along with individual  fiscal policies and thus over time , was plagued with both monetary imbalances and trade deficit disparities within.The BRICS  on date ,has no  shared monetary platform.
           The economic base within BRICS  remains varied; Brazil,Russia and South Africa are highly dependent on raw material  / energy exports while China and India are  largely manufacture and service centered. This sets up a nice closed loop for a healthy and progressive trade within its members. If  BRICS  does gel , the bloc's economic growth can be rapid. United they may well be in their frustration with an omnipotent dollar ,the world's reserve currency ,in reality each BRICS nation  has prime bilateral relations with the United States ! And more importantly,each is entangled  as much, in the resultant global politics as  global economic concerns. There is need for caution. 
       Now that BRICS has a  central bank  it may tempt the Bloc  to  position itself  far too soon as an alternative to the ollar driven trade and bring into the equation the hitherto dormant monetary part of BRICS operations .An early  temptation  to go in for a common trading currency would  tilt the scale  in favour of China  whose economy is not  transparent enough  to merit the tag of a stable tender either for for  sectoral  or global transactions , For the present ,Brics Bank must be seen only as a useful but limited tool for combined prosperity and no further.

Pub Fin Express Aug 2

Quality trailing in E-tailing

 Flipkart, with an eye popping $ 1 blln venture funding enters the club of E-Retail  with a bang and adds to the competition. These Companies seem to be selling everything under the sun.With such variety and vast outsourcing is there a system of quality assay in place ?. Just because goods are priced  cheaper, is the customer  resigned to getting  pot-luck quality .These companies offer to take back goods from an unsatisfied customer ,but  mere return is the worst  professional approach to customer servicing. There could be a rider on licenses for E-Retail, requiring Quality certification and Audit akin to say an ISO-9000 on products they sell,to guard customer interests.Companies that  fashion their trade to customer concerns  will  stay in reckoning, others might fold up over time .Investors and venture promoters  would hopefully keep this in mind.

Namaste-A posture of isolation

Scientists find shaking hands invites transfer of germs There are  far contagious  transmissions  from handshakes.With an American we get the ills of capitalism, the Russian passes on communism, the Latinos give us raw socialism and the Chinese pass on  cheap imports that skews the balance of payments and erodes our industries. Of course they in return, get  from us  most of Silicon Valley start ups at the one end and almost all the Nurses on the other. But In politics ,as shaking hands necessarily involves ones arms,  we unsurprisingly  end  up with greater exchange of fire power  soon after. India and Pak ;Palestine and Israel  et al ,will vouch for that.

          The best way to greet would of course be with the folding palms in a Namaste . It unambiguously signals an isolationist stance like we  managed to convey in the recent WTO .This may come  handy in future too.But  a mere Namaste can not enable copious inflows of FDI as perhaps  a  handshake would, even if we were to raise  participation limits from 26 % to whatever figure that captures the fancy of the  government's  of the day.

Pub Economic Times Aug 1

KNOWLEDGE OVER PERCEPTION

The government's hesitation in going ahead with  trials of genetically modified crops could well be construed as erring on the safe side. But the fact remains that our own range and depth of research in bio-engineered crops is in  infancy and  we are unable to compare notes with  indigenous research nor adduce well  substantiated data from  endemic studies, that could help steer a  scientific view either way.Nor are we able to get over the fears that we would be forever committed to buying seeds under perennial monopoly. Our experience with Bt Cotton ought to give us  confidence to systematically  try out one or two secondary crops.We are  an agro-centric economy and amidst global spurt in agro - innovation forced by climate change, the crux should lie in upgrading our own research skills to be able to judge the  use of newer technologies with greater confidence.

Pub Business Standard AUG 1
Pub Fin Exp Aug 11
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/letters-to-the-editor-loan-waivers/1278224/0

Making banks safer

Following its mandate of a five-year time frame for Indian banks to achieve compliance with the Basel-III prudential norms, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has now announced a stricter capital requirement for banks that it deems to be domestic systemically important banks (D-SIBs), or banks "too big to fail". This could at best be a pious wish.The root of all troubles is the Capital induced growth , the core of a neo-modern  global financial framework , led to insatiable demand for credit .That made banking as exciting as it was risky.19 th century bankers  matched the value of their deposits with their own capital even up to  a 50/50 basis,there being no concept of a limited liability .As limited companies ,ownership and control were separated , ownership widely dispersed in shareholders and  risks  capped by limited liability enabling  banks to  assume far greater risk even as they took on more debt to boost their returns. In due time  banks  were permitted to deduct their interest payments from their tax liabilities , a  subsidy for financial risk-taking ! The hubris continues,as under the Basel framework, government debt of developed countries are assigned a risk weight of zero. That meant that with  hardly any capital, major banks could hold unlimited amounts of the sovereign debt of such nations and still pass the credit test .The rules that allowed sovereign debt ,say of Greece that lost 70%  face value and yet carry zero credit risk , set up a fiscal tsunami across eurozone  leading to global repercussions. Globally banking  is perhaps already on a  wilder path  beyond rules and regulations ,where both risks and returns have soared and failures written into  the DNA of too many of them ,the risks  being always borne by the wider society.
Pub Fin Express July 28 
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/letters-banks-must-be-made-safer/1274430

Executive hubris

Such issues and the recent one of appointing a SC judge ought to be seen   beyond their  present context.That we have been treating  constitutionally installed institutions with less than due regard ,has been the bane of this nation.In too many an  instance we have tried to  circumvent legal estoppels  If the basic  pillars of our national edifice were to endlessly seek to demonstrate their superiority over the other ,the rules of the game will never be defined. We will be constantly running into one or the other problem  .That in six decades we have amended the Constitution 118 times, only highlights   our legislative preponderance and an executive hubris. The USA in over 226 years has brought in changes to its constitution just 17 times..The British are doing fine for centuries without a written constitution. They chose to operate on mutual faith and respect, commodities that have ever been in short supply in our polity, particularly in the last three decades.
Pub Deccan Herald ;July 1

Support systems for the farmer

As urban areas exploded their peripheral farmer  was displaced away from the epicenter of mass demand as also from water sources that were commandeered for the city.The hapless farmer was hence forced to look up to someone who would meet his needs of transport, ready cash  and prompt off take of produce in the absence of adjacent storage facilities.The wholesalers provided him all this and extracted his cost from both the producer and consumer.Without him a farmer would be handicapped on all three counts.The end consumer in the city would like to see his vegetable spread at dinner come cheaper but merely de-listing fruits and vegetables from APMC Act,even if States are willing,do not take away the basic logistics that the distant  farmer will continue to contend with.Setting up  self-contained farmers Kibbutz that would  provide him storage, processing and direct market access at designated  locations across the nation, is one sensible way to profitably bridge centers of production and demand and cut on waste and delay.All other steps can be only be temporary

Pub : Hindu Businessline ;July 5

Leader of Opposition

An unseemly sparring is on between the Government and its Opposition The BJP leading a NDA government has little reason to deny a LOP for the Congress led UPA that  with  60 MPs, meets the conventional numeric of a tenth of Lok Sabha strength.Should the BJP harp on the count of 44 of Congress as justifiably inadequate for it to qualify ,it can do so in all fairness,by re constituting a stand alone BJP government with its majority count of 282 MPs  and thus negate a coalition both in the government  and the opposition . To further bring credence to its stand on the exclusivity of the Lok Sabha arithmetic and extend its ethical logic, BJP ought to shed   ministers from its allied parties and those from the Rajya Sabha, limiting it to the LS. No doubt the PM  enjoys  a constitutional  prerogative to choose his cabinet for  optimum governance , but he and his party have  the onus as well  to serve a higher cause, that of a truly democratic functioning of the legislature, by positioning without delay a LOP in the lower House.

Pub: Hindu Businessline; July 9

A re-look at savings

Overall savings in the economy peaked to 36.82% of GDP in 2007-08,falling to 32.3% in 2010-11, Gross domestic savings in 2013-14 est,have since fallen  7.1 percent from its peak of 2007-08 .Having large resources in savings can provide more capital than itself as it can be used as collateral or security for loans, providing more funds for investment and potential business ventures and hence, growth.  Studies show  that higher growth generally tends to precede higher savings. Our enviably high savings rates have traditionally been  financing our economic push of the past two decades. What gives stability and strength to India’s position is that around 70 percent of the country’s savings comes from the household sector, that have since sadly dropped to below 10% of gross domestic product, for the first time in 13 years. Inflation eating into disposable incomes could be one factor and precisely why we ought to promote more savings to spur growth. That said ,savings must be channeled to investment not to underwrite expenditure.There could be attractive new look Infrastructure savings schemes  for domestic investors that  could be held in Escrow towards targeted set of projects.This closed system of funding while boosting savings per se can help endemic monitoring of specific projects for delays / cost over run.

Pub Fin Express; July 8

Say no to urban-rural divide

Bulk of the services sector operates from urban locations.This sector covers a wide range of activities, such as transportation, communication, trading, finances, real estate and health, among others. In 2012 its income was at 56.9% of GDP while its  share  in employment was a low 28.1%.In contrast, Agriculture had a share of 13.9 % of GDP but  contributed to  54.6 % of employment ie. half the  nation's workforce provided  just a seventh of the GDP .  It is relevant to note that whereas in 2001-2011 population rose by 20 Cr but that of cultivators declined by 1.14 Cr.. While the far  higher  urban income generation would justify greater attention and resources towards its infrastructure, it must be conceded that the center for mass employment still remains non-urban .We must find means of augmenting rural employment , be it food processing  and such other related industries, firstly to retain existing agro- labour and secondly to reverse the urban efflux. We need an holistic approach to  the agro sector to sustain the marginal farmers who are its backbone.Else over time ,entry of big farming will  render  the traditional farmers unemployed in their own homes as also  unemployable to urban requirements for want of education and skill.Our farmers require to be helped out on both counts. Urban income generation could influence higher urban resource allocation but can not come at the cost of healthy levels of employment of the average rural  cultivator.. 

Railway Budget 2014

Governance being the lead slogan of the current government,one would have expected the Budget 2014 to lay out broad contours of improved standards in each of the distinct elements of operation of the IR . Passenger related concerns that remain largely un -addressed are :-Transparent and easy  ticketing; Safety;Cleanliness , Hygiene and ease of passenger movement inside stations;Punctuality and Law and Order.All these are directly linked to  governance and superintendence of day-to-day operations.Wages form a very  large chunk of revenue.To ensure commensurate returns, the wage needs to be split into salary and performance incentive.. Incentives be based on an algorithm of base operating elements and relative performance assessed twice a year.This would have been difficult earlier but with extensive computerisation now available it can be handled .This could be be applicable Division wise.Very large PSUs  has been doing this for long in routine and ensuring continuous improvement.Improved efficiency through employee empowerment and incentives will in itself  enable  ushering  in  increased and faster haulage and wagon turn around.Such a well oiled organisation can then be utilised to meet the higher levels of operational competency  for proposed high speed rail movement. Bullet trains are no anathema but operational excellence in the IR must be in place well before this hardware rolls out.Obviously the intention is not just one show piece train but many more to follow.

Pub : Economic Times ;July 10

Budget 2014

Arun Jaitley's budget 2014, is practically the same as the interim budget of the outgoing UPA-II .as there was hardly any time to recast it  for a newer dispensation. In gross Jaitley surrenders revenue of 22000 Cr in direct taxes and  makes up  27000 Cr in the indirect ones.Some customary tweaks have been applied in customs and excise, for smaller aims.With a large middle income electorate in view ,the budget has a bias on urban up scaling with housing sector related loan and tax sops.The future contours of NDA regime are  seen drawn in light pencil ,on  token allocations to  newly proposed schemes and  ideas, addressing skill and employabilty..These must be forged to shape in due course to aid growth trajectory.

       With no changes in revenue the confidence of the FM to contain fiscal deficit  comes from the strength derived from the  Modi mantra of governance and the hope to reach far higher level of   divestment in this fiscal ,given an animated  market. The Sensex has reacted positively though with more than usual caution ,as the day progressed.Budget 2014 needs to be largely seen as a trailer for the main feature slated for 2015.The NDA would need to ride out this year as much on hope as it must on  execution of intents,in contrast to UPA-II that had relied more on providence.

 Pub : Economic  Times ;July 14
          Hind Business Line ;July 11
          Asian Age   July 11

A proper mix

The Modi government is  on three main pillars,a powerful PM an all pervading PMO and a  president singularly focused on winning elections.In the exclusive pursuit of growth and  the three - centered load bearing dispensation we may see the role of ministers,bureaucrats and  party functionaries much reduced. Though this may  enable  macro objectives of the government  being achieved but   the " last mile delivery ", of the benefits of growth will need a host of animated delivery agents, be it the minister,babu or the party cog ,to reach it to the common man.Top driven governance and a demanding nine-to-five regimen may assist carrying out directives on select  objectives of the day, but may not spur  local level imagination,innovation and job pride that are essential to complete the benefit chain. UPA  with its cargo of generous  inclusiveness  could not find its  berth in 2014, as the Congress lacked a vibrant party apparatus  to deliver .BJP has managed a strong set up today but if its apex leadership  does not factor in complementary bottoms-up participation  under more open decision making environs,it could well face a similar fate in 2019. 

Pub : Business Standard; July 16

China can not beat the dollar

                    A World Bank report says that the Chinese economy at $ 16.72 trillion is set to overtake the US, in PPP terms, by end 2014.Sounds impressive, but is  dry statistics.Certainly the dollar has  been declining for three decades now,losing  almost half its value against other major currencies since 1985 and  down 33% in the past 11 years alone. Yet it is  the tallest world currency.Also,even as the U.S. economy  remains sluggish their Fed presses on with  massive Quantitative Easing, an euphemism for printing of notes , for upwards of three years now .Such monetary recklessness ought to have pulled down the dollar value and yet, as other economic blocs are doing worse ,investors  continue to shift cash to US, boosting the dollar with increased inflows Doubling  up as the world currency, dollar acts  as an  incentive for safe parking and has it going both ways , in domestic and the  global economy !. 

           Under similar factors but on contrary reasoning,  the status of the Chinese currency  as also its apparent economic might ,is a far cry.Its profligate  subterranean shadow banking system fuels liquidity enormously  but  not being subject to regulatory / market scrutiny  as the dollar,a deep monetary malaise festers beneath.  Coupled to this,  its overt financial system burdened with  huge  non-performing loans, bad banks, inefficient state-owned enterprises and real estate bubbles, makes for a shallow and unreliable lead economy.Its Yuan / Renminbi is not  a trading currency and stays non -convertible. China's fiscal and monetary burden imposed by unhealthy levels of money circulation  hence  remains caged within and can not be passed to other economies .The dollar has long had the the " exorbitant privilege "  of  every other world economy  underwriting  its continued global pre- eminence !.

Perils of over urbanisation

 As urban areas exploded their peripheral farmer  was displaced away from the epicenter of mass demand as also from water sources that were commandeered for the city.Take for instance the  mundane earthen pot maker who lost his friendly soil and water in the city precincts and had to move far away to eke out his trade. A five litre pot sells in Delhi at Rs 120 but he must not be getting more than Rs 10, as his customer is 50 Km away.Reckless urbanization has helped only  the real estate mogul,never the artisan.
          The same with the  hapless farmer who  was moved far out of the city and was hence forced to look up to someone who would now meet his needs of transport, ready cash  and prompt off take of produce in the absence of adjacent storage facilities.The wholesalers provided him all this and extracted his cost from both the producer and consumer.Without him a farmer would be handicapped on all three counts.The end consumer in the city would like to see his vegetable spread at dinner come cheaper but merely tinkering with the likes of APMC Act,do not take away the basic logistics that the distant  farmer will continue to contend with.Setting up  self-contained farmers Kibbutz with storage,processing and direct marketing facilities, is one sensible way to profitably bridge centers of production and demand and cut on waste and delay. This will take  funds and earnestness. Governments quickly forget that the lowly onion had seen the back of them thrice already.

 Pub  --Business Standard Jun 25

Patent Phishing

  Last week the Apex court's ruling  in the Enercon vs Yogesh Mehra case, that a patent opponent cannot take multiple shots at challenging the same patent  but must choose between the various options spelt out in India’s Patent Act, has gone unnoticed. The ruling  is a welcome deterrent on multiple port patent litigation  by zealous patent lawyers.The subject case had involved hard core  designs for Wind Power equipment and Systems, which  made it perhaps  more conducive to legal examination than say those pertaining to software domains where patents are   litigated because of undefined boundaries, vague language  and unclear scope  . Much earlier in the wake of the legal shift from a focus on what the patentee actually built, towards  the  concept of " boundaries of invention ",  lawyers made out  claims in broad functional terms and sought a lien to own rights, not to a particular machine or even to a particular  method of  achieving a goal, but to the goal itself !.This  ill conceived development led to costly  defensive patenting ie,acquiring patents mainly to pre-empt the risk of litigation .Technology companies in particular,  spent fortunes  on building defenses .Google bought Motorola Mobility for $12.5 billion ,mostly for its patents. An Apple-Microsoft-Nokia consortium bought Nortel’s patent portfolio for $4.5 billion.The  current SC ruling hopefully  helps tilt the balance back ,in favour of innovation and to discourage " Patent Phishing 

Privilege of the dollar

.Strangely even as the dollar has steadily been declining for three decades now,it  lost almost half its value against other major currencies since 1985 and is down 33% in the past 11 years alone,it is still the tallest world currency. The U.S. economy  is growing very sluggishly and to top this, their Fed is pressing on with  massive Quantitative Easing, an euphemism for printing of notes by the US, for upwards of three years now .Such monetary recklessness ought to have pulled down the dollar value and yet, as other economic blocs particularly the eurozone ,are doing worse ,investors  continue to shift cash  to the U.S boosting the dollar through increased inflows,which  occur not as much by export sales as from  foreign investors who see better opportunities or seek a safe  parking for  their cash . Further,the dollar  doubling  up as the world currency as well, acts  as an  incentive .The US dollar thus has it going both ways ,in its domestic as also in the global economy. In effect every other economy has become an unwilling underwriter to the mighty dollar and this, is its " exorbitant privilege " and may well  remain so, till other economies gather sufficient economic clout over time to challenge its unique status.

Pub  --- Business Line Jun   25

Treasure our languages

The decisive win of the BJP is a factor for attempting to re position Hindi.Politically dominant tongues like English,French ,Spanish ,Chinese,Arabic etc. being prone to greater usage at a given era ,subordinate others, dictated by the needs at that given time What is paramount is ,when  a particular language passes into sunset,in takes away that vital hue or nuance that  it alone was capable of providing,leaving the human canvas that much poorer.It is natural that the history and culture of the times in which man records or propounds his experiences or ideas, gets seamlessly merged into his creations much like  an indelible hue  to a work of art..States south of the Vindhyas,first resisted Sanskrit for its  Aryan roots and later as the language of the Brahmins. Hindi was met with similar antipathy, the anti-Hindi agitations being of recent memory.In time ,the compulsions of modern day technological advances had many states embrace English  All our Indian languages are the bridges to treasures of the past,the older the language,richer the treasure and that should be reason alone to safeguard each one of them.Thought must over-ride form and as long as we are enabled to think in mother tongues and transact in an alien language,  their ingrained  ethos will sustain our vivid culture.Little sense in trading our hoary linguistic treasures for lingual pragmatism,if not to singular dominance.

Pub -- Economic Times Jun 24
Pub ---The Telegraph Jun 28

The lonely columnist

 A diminishing tribe of  Page 10 columnists 10  assiduously  cater to select readers who  wish  to firm up on an opinion or strive to upgrade  their ken on matters of larger concerns .An ideal journalist is one who stays as close to the middle of a black and white divide only indicating the trend of a swing  to either zone and  rarely seen to  push his arguments to  extremes.  He is the  amicus curiae  placing  facts evenly  with an intention to illuminate across a gamut of perceptions,yet  leaving  the prerogative of a conclusion to the reader. In this era of Twitter where within minutes of an event people reach widely varying judgments   and even pass instant verdicts ,  the task of the columnist is arduous and at a risk of  sounding contrarian, most of the time.Precisely why such men are vital to an informed democracy.

Pub --Fin Express Jun 23

The choice before Congress

The GOP has seen ups and downs in six decades. In the 2014 LS election, one in three voted for BJP and one in five for Congress.  BJP and Congress together could garner just over 50% , others  collected the rest. BJP got majority at the lowest vote share ever, given our strange incompatibility between seats and vote share .BJP is expanding into hitherto seat barren states even as Congress is receding . Without regional allies Congress can not climb back to substantial clout in next five / ten years.Leadership for the Congress thus would need to operate on two planes- one for keeping the central core together and the other which is state centred .The latter needs to patiently cultivate the electorate as also other regional political entities. .A state Congress  leader has to be of great mettle. Given its overbearing central leadership thus far, the Congress has an uphill task on this score.But there is no alternative.
         Congress can also look at the brighter side.  BJP  may find it a tall order to run a diverse nation on the strength of improved governance alone.A growth led economy will take time to  stabilise and changing factors of global economics would provide  room for errors..Congress era welfare schemes will have their place. BJP would be averse to go against its ingrained tenet of laissez faire that detests subsidies and as  people  battle a widening  socio- economic divide, the Congress will be fondly  remembered .

Inured to suffering,yet hopeful in strife

The Euro crisis reiterated a lesson, that fiscal policy / monetary-policy regime influence  the depth and duration of  economic downturns  and the time for its recovery. A plethora of big ticket welfare schemes by the UPA-II riding a hubris of growth  in its earlier avatar, laid the ground for ponderous deficits  leading to an adamant inflation that stunted growth. Food inflation is a different story altogether and a change of government alone is no remedy and we will have to endure it till growth is re railed.That makes  IIP of more material concern . This is showing steady improvement The fiscal adage  that  current spending  be balanced by taxation and that  reducing deficits on current spending is justified  only if it be  replaced by capital-spending programs will hold.When  carried out in tandem , the nation would ensure that its people can buy and its industries can produce Money and effort spent on Power and other infrastruture in the coming months will serve  the economy well.True the next six months would also see us dealing with an afflicted monsoon, volatile crude and a new government settling in and straightening out its priorities.If we can manage to downtrend inflation and uptrend growth ,even in small steps ,we might  wake up to a happy new year.
Pub Business Standard Jun 18
http://www.business-standard.com/article/opinion/letters-inflation-and-growth-114061701273_1.html

Our vivid political palette

The wheel of politics keeps turning. The Congress peaked in UPA-I , on an ascendant growth curve. The UPA-II then ,inexplicably switched over to the extremes of ' inclusiveness ' losing sight of growth and touching nadir.The BJP has since  come back riding high on the   the growth arc  of the cycle  this time.While its majority strength and its innate economic tenet might well enable a GDP recovery ,the weak Opposition makes NDA vulnerable to socio-political and economic imbalances as the regime progresses, because of the ideology derived from the Parivar. If governance suffered under the UPA due to a diffraction  in authority, the NDA in turn could  be susceptible to too much of it being centralised.Even the best political outfit and redoubtable leaders must go through a learning curve.Modi and his NDA -II too will travel this path and political entities will cyclically keep following one another.

  That the Left could manage three decades of rule in Bengal only on inclusiveness and no growth, will remain a political enigma.In the process it has been reduced to a political bonzai  and may well stay that way for a long while.The AAP was born amidst the rush of national concerns that both the Congress and the BJP failed to address in their decade long battle of political one-upmanship. One reason why this fledgling party though high on spirits is lost in self contradictions ,unable to identify its core purpose / ideology.Lost in  prioritising  its agenda, it is internally divided .The good thing its founders seem to be determined to stick together and the party should  duly evolve over time.It is essential it does as the vacuum created by the Left is better filled by a political entity than by the likes of 'Arab spring '.It was with much effort that political the center stage was reclaimed by Parliament, from Jantar Mantar !.
Pub Financial Express Jun 12

Left-A bonsai now ?

An all inclusive socio-political dispensation requires a definitive Left leaning,but in today's global economy ,growth and development are sustained by as much of a  swing to the Right .The CPI(M)-led West Bengal experiment in its later phase far from being a weapon of class struggle,  degenerated into a class collaborationist dispensation and an instrument for crushing people’s resistance to pro-corporate policies. While it became increasingly indifferent to its initial promise of providing the masses with urgent relief, in the era of  globalisation it went overboard in granting competitive favours to corporate investors in the name of attracting more investment to the state. Karat &Co as the 'Old Boys of the JNU' in the CPI-M have managed to undo what had taken decades under comrades Basu ,Surjit and others to build.hat the Left could manage three decades of rule in Bengal only on inclusiveness and no growth, will remain a political enigma.In the process it has been reduced to a political bonsai  and may well stay that way for a long while.

Infosys today,others next

The Infosys stock was languishing from 2011.The relentless exodus of its top men reflects the  pessimism on its growth potential. The company  even after its multi- exponential growth, persisted with its founders as the CEO with   centralised control over commercial decisions.This multi billion dollar megalith  felt no need to fill up the position of COO since May 2012 !.In the last  decade like others ,Infosys too acquired a more intellectually evolved set of hands. But these men were never  brought into the line for grooming  as the baton kept  passing  on from one founder to another.The company's loyalty to its founders had perhaps continued to rate above the interests of its share holders.

                              The advent of Sikka,a rank outsider that too with a technology background, will be a twin experiment for Infosys that grew on providing  service support.Today's IT is not even about  tomorrow but the day after and beyond. If today Infosys is evaluating itself, others like Wipro would be better off to start their exercise at the earliest on similar lines.The only enemy in IT,has been time .

Not by governance alone

The congress had gone into shell shock far earlier. The party and its government were just unable to gel ,be it policy , governance or coordination within  This is when UPA -I had done reasonably well on economy and welfare and the BJP  had been endlessly tying itself in knots from 2004. UPA.should have had the good sense to resign and go for fresh elections in 2012-2013 which would have saved  them the ignominy of crashing from 206 to 44. In trying to save balance 18 months of UPA-II , Congress has lost a decade. This fatal error provided for the the advent in July 2013 of Modi as the messiah for BJP and Kalki for the Congress' downfall. 

  If at 31 % vote share the BJP garnered 282 there is much leeway for the Congress  to reinvent itself  this time ,with a mix of dynasty and guided grooming of its satraps.The BJP too will find it a tall order to run a diverse nation on the strength of improved governance alone. It aims  cutting subsidies across the board in the hope  of balancing the socio-economics by a resurgent babu led governance. It might well do so but that will take time and changing factors of global economics would provide  room for errors.BJP travelled ten long years to reassert itself politically, helped along in the end stages by a bumbling UPA-II. The Congress too would resurrect itself  mostly by its own efforts and no less by the failures of NDA-II in the coming years.

Uber,a welcome entrant to Apps

.Innovative IT lives in a make believe world with its business largely  crystal -ball led.The recent $19 bln  buy out of Whatsapp  will remain highly  mystical ,the transaction  being largely on stocks and  far less in cash ,till we get to see it either as a classic  bubble or a case of brilliant  business insight .As a disturbing pointer to the former ,we had steep erosion in the prices of some internet and social media stocks recently ,pulling  down Nasdaq Composite Index  by 10 per cent -Twitter stock that gained 70% on listing day  fell 46 % from its peak even as Facebook and LinkedIn  ,followed suit and back home , Justdial and Info Edge tumbled sharply.The Uber story is hopefully an illustration of the latter. The rationale of its valuation at $18.2 bn  can be argued separately, but unlike other esoteric App initiatives,Uber spins out a business of moving men and material and generates real money that adds to the growth of the middle income group.One would rather have an affluent cabbie enabled by Uber than an idle one trading his woes on Whatsapp with a fellow sufferer. Amidst increasing fears that California  could well be hosting its second gold rush post 1858, this time in the IT Shangri La of Silicon Valley , Uber and its ilk ought to be a welcome relief

Need for AAP

The AAP was born amidst the rush of national concerns that both the Congress and the BJP failed to address in their decade long battle of political one-upmanship. One reason why this fledgling party though high on spirits is lost in self contradictions ,unable to identify its core purpose / ideology.Lost in  prioritising  its agenda, it is internally divided .The good thing, its founders seem to be determined to stick together and the party  ought to evolve over time.It is essential that it does as the vacuum created by the Left is better filled by a regular political entity than by the likes of 'Arab spring '. It was with much effort that political the center stage was reclaimed by Parliament, from Jantar Mantar !. The Left in its enigmatic  three decades of rule in Bengal purely on inclusiveness with  no growth, has since been reduced to a political bonsai  and may well stay that way for a long while.

Infosys

The relentless exodus of its top men is not because of   market's pessimism  on its growth potential, but is  the other way round. The company  even after its multi- exponential growth, persisted with its founders as the CEO with   centralised control over commercial decisions.This multi billion dollar megalith  felt no need to fill up the position of COO since May 2012 !.In the last  decade like others ,Infosys too acquired a more intellectually evolved set of hands. But these men were never  brought into the line for grooming  as the baton kept  passing  on from one founder to another.The company's loyalty to its founders perhaps ,continued to rate above the interests of its share holders.Today's IT is not even about  tomorrow but the day after and beyond . It would require a much younger and energetic pursuer of dreams than  doyens of vintage,much less of the  founder lineage, to be in sync with the rapidly emerging possibilities in modern day IT.Infosys is no doubt making profits ,perhaps on its past reputation. But its top soil needs to be urgently replaced with fresh ones, with  imaginative additives to promote vigorous growth. Else, the markets may not be as kind to it, when GDP picks up  in a couple of years under the new political dispensation.