No time to pause

Brent crude has dipped again and that portends a stasis in global economy. Added to this is the end to Quantitative Easing in US and simultaneous fresh stimulus in Europe and Japan has created an unsteady monetary regime which creates disproportionate FI flows to our economy. These largely,go into Indian stocks that are notoriously over valued and not to enabling infrastruture projects that are needed to complement efforts at growth.. In the absence of tangible and forceful reforms /policies over a gamut of enablers : power,land acquisition ,labour ,skill upgrade , companies are loathe to expand capacity. As a result these speculative inflows , besides spurring inflation ,produce neither growth nor additional jobs.. Capital investments must be encouraged as never before and good governance is relevant here.We have a stable government now with a clear task ahead.There is a small window now,with lower fuel prices and 
falling global prices of farm produce ,that would keep inflation in check for a while. The next few months must trigger a spate of reform initiatives and necessarily lower key rates. We may not get such a scenario ,later.

Economic Times Nov 6
Financial Express Nov6

Electing complacency

BJP has its party and government set into one common mould .Its PM and its president are on round the clock election mode. Since the policies of UPA pass enough muster not to be tampered with ,the bureaucracy merely needs to be on routine watch and little else.Whereas the Congress had a silent PM who perhaps took some wrong decisions, the BJP has a full time  campaigner who seems to have little time left for them .With ministers under the oversight of the powerful PMO ,the outputs  from periodic elections overshadow theirs.Everything is placid and mundane and no whiff of change anywhere.The low crude prices adds to the complacency. With unending Indian elections we may uneventfully touch 2019 . We could then end up with a strong BJP and an indifferent economy. Much like the way a stronger UPA-II started off in 2009 over the euphoria of its previous avatar ,and then folded up.
Indian Express Nov 4

Easy money

Monetary measures,of the likes of Quantitative Easing of the US Fed  seek to increase the supply of credit and not an increase  of money supply to the economy .When Central Banks "stimulate" ,it is not about  physical currency but  a focus  on debt.   "Money"   in Banking , denotes  financial collateral /  equity capital. Central banks are not equipped to  increase the level of reserves, the prime means to circulate "liquidity", but  create only ledger money to prod the banking system into increased lending. Sadly though,the  liquidity through stimulus was largely  subverted by  the   finance  industry  getting preferential treatment from the government ,be it the massive  bailouts or the  right to borrow  huge amounts of  free money from the Central Banks for  risk free use. What was worse, banks then sat on idle cash ,not lending to the ground economy being overly concerned  about their balance sheets .While.the very purpose of banking  was  thus lost in default,an equal damage was caused by massive global transfers of dollar funds causing huge monetary and fiscal imbalances on lesser economies.We managed the post 2008 crisis well, but many nations could not and are still struggling 

Business Standard Nov 1

Leasing out to judiciary

.Its a sad reflection on us that after decades we are yet to get a grip over our financial systems.And now a  globalised economy has only added  mist to the maze. The intervention of the Apex court has not been too soon.It has managed to take away political overtones thus far dominating the issue of unaccounted money and  to restore a hitherto absent  focus on containing the problem. Hopefully we may see modest beginnings of a comprehensive approach by government(s) ,be it on  political funding, a tax regime that encourages evasion,vagueness in regulation that abets misuse of discretion and protracted bilateral agreements over flow of money between nations. The effort would be painstaking and  involve patience and  determination.But then India on 29 0ct 2014 failed to attend a meeting in Berlin of the Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD), 51 countries signed the agreement to share financial data and boost efforts to crack down on tax evasion inter alia requiring a commitment to follow international standards of confidentiality for information received relating to black money.The signatories were most European Union nations as well as tax havens like Liechenstein, British Virgin Island and the Cayman Island .The government has to show far greater commitment. .  The coal allocation mess has provided us lessons already.Apex court can only do that much and no more.It would be unfortunate if the judiciary is called upon too frequently to reset directions.
Financial Express Oct 31

Left-stay away from extremes

 History records that so long the Left stayed away from  the extremes of the Red ,it had gathered stature . Every time it reached out to red borders,it had steep slides.  The Left evolved as part of the Congress around 1920 and did well till it veered to too far left and lost heavy ground n 1928.It then moved to the center and prospered in the Congress collective. In 1942 it went fully Marxist ,even as to  dub Congress leaders as lackeys of the west, and as a consequence, lost its standing. Post the 1960s it re-allied with the Congress  to represent the trade mark red tint in Indian politics. For three decades the Left grew in clout as it had learnt to occupy the much sought after left-of- center space in a growing economy.Then came Singur as the CPI (M )  inexplicably ,went back to distant basics and took a sharp left turn on the pro-industry policy of its own CM in Bengal and in the process began to ebb yet again and its decision to withdraw support to UPA-I over the N'deal ,took the Left to a  near political rout .The Left had learnt its lessons repeatedly and yet is unable to resist the fatal charm of the extreme red . The CPI (M ) must realise that its comfort zone  is never  in extremes,but lies closer to the center.
Indian Express Oct 29

Wisdom in choice

.After the Maharashtra prelims ,the BJP needs singular clarity in choosing its live-in-partner for the finals. What Ram Vilas Paswan is to Bihar politics,the Pawars are to M'Rshtra, as a more massive version. Both have survived on stable vote banks on firm territory.The Congress had carried the baggage of NCP for so long, that it was inured.If only the UPA-II had wisely selected to forgo the last two years of its term ,split wth NCP and called early elections,it would have avoided the current ignominy. The BJP has easy lessons to learn; stay clear of the NCP . It would breathe far easier with the Sena . Udhav Thakre is    less wilier  and far above board than Sharad Pawar.Should for some reason the BJP does not pay heed,it ends up with a elusive foe within and an angry ally without . Congress would then be happy to see a fellow sufferer in its company.
Indian Express sept 22

New polarisation

The cold shouldering of the Sena by BJP and then the personal attacks on Modi by Uddhav Thakre were a part of the planned polarisation of the past master Amit Shah . The mock pre-poll tiff between the BJP and SS were  thus meant to keep votes straying away to Congress /NCP  has paid off. It is a backhanded compliment to the UPA-II policy of inclusiveness that had channeled welfare across the weaker sections as the BJP was aware of popular perception of its avowed pro-business slant . The bright spot in all this; a new wave polarisation through a larger agenda has come to replace the hackneyed and worn out caste / religious sequestration.That said the BJP did get away with the old formula in UP in the LS election. Credit must go to the BJP that prescribes medicines as per the illness and makes a success of it. May be because the BJP put its faith on  an younger generation ,with an assertive leader at the top.
 Mail Today Sept 20

Space research ,for every nation

In his speech after the success of putting Mangalyan into Martian orbit, the PM said that we may now be the envy of others.Outer space is too vast and mysterious for mankind to fritter away its composite knowledge and acumen in either mutual envy or a national ego. There have been incremental contributions by men transcending time and geography. The success or failure of missions by one, is that of the global scientific collective .Excessive hold- back of cutting edge technologies in space exploration from one another may be of transient help in spurring self sufficiency of a fellow  nation .The story of a two decade delay in developing our indigenous cryogenic engines,is a case in point . But the human collective then loses precious time in reinventing the wheel, perhaps  much too frequently and an otherwise intelligent planet Earth  lets slip opportunities ,so hard to come by in  the highly complex and challenging quest to conquer the infinite space around us..

Pub Business Standard Sept 18