BJP's rusted tool

 The week saw Rajnath Singh  take out the rusted and unused tool  of  'Apology '  from the BJP kit bag Hitherto ,a hesitant BJP stepping into 2014 campaign after a powerless decade ,was pursuing its  familiar majoritarian theme. Emboldened by a beleaguered  Congress battling past sins and staying on the back foot, BJP is making its first unfamiliar moves on minority management.The retrospective / prospective  ambiguities of its President's apology is proof enough of its lack of conviction Or was it merely to provide a fig leaf of an excuse for Paswan, and hopefully others ,to return to the NDA fold.Secularism seems to be the trade-in currency in the election Bazaar. The third Front had been using this regularly, not that it had helped in the formation of a stable third entity of power, but good enough to effectively play the numbers game for a post- poll power share. BJP seems to have hit upon this as a sub- strategy as it feels that this time round it can touch a 200 plus tally.It goes without saying that Narendra Modi will keep himself insulated from these goings on. Even otherwise ' apology ' does not exist in his dictionary much less in his vocabulary !.

Aadhar can not be a half-leap

Passport and PAN were designed as single purpose identity vehicles and yet the sheer number and geographical spread for securing such pan -national identity  entailed decades in streamlining  their delivery together with highest levels of data fidelity.The Aadhar on the other hand ,was conceived in a multiplicity of  end purposes most of which  were yet to be even identified .Thus it was weak on two counts ; the number was many times higher than say the passport & PAN put together and yet  perfection and effective delivery was expected in less than half a decade  even as it was prematurely loaded e.g to cater to refund of commodity / utility prices after an universal pricing format came into being.Such overloading will continue unless the Aadhar Stage I goal and time frame get fixed ,to perhaps then go on to Stage II.In the meantime  PAN could offer a  temporary platform for DBT  Else an overloaded Aadhar  will discover newer bottlenecks and  greater disillusionment .UID is a good concept but without concomitant excellence in design, administrative support ,oversight and monitoring ,it goes nowhere. Good in parts like a curate's egg, the Aadhar will trundle along to perhaps eventually lose both direction and speed. the Aadhar project can not also be abandoned as a half-leap given the  continuing need for it and the 3500 Cr price tag it already carries. Efforts  have to  be doubled to tie up the loose ends  and set up permanent and accessible  infrastructure for ease of issue and a time bound delivery.
Pub  Financial Express
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/letters-to-the-editor/1221922

Referenda & democracies

The hallmark of an alert and avid democracy is the efficacy of its poll surveys.Both the pollster and the polled must understand the larger import of a questionnaire that should invariably go beyond the immediate need. This is to ensure linkage and correlation that would be vital for the next sampling later on .The framing of queries has to be diligently designed to sample the on going flow of thought /perceptions without mixing up disturbing or changing the proportion of elements of the medium and  the region within boundaries of reference ,much like  sampling delicately from a flowing water source. In dealing with issues  contained in a socio-political matrix, the pollster has to be an avant-garde researcher who must have the intelligence to constantly upgrade his knowledge and inputs. This can come only with frequent surveys on relatively diverse concerns in and around the target region as also the  possible effect of socio-geographic- economic influences from adjacent target areas. If we had a system of referenda,routine in many compact euro nations, our system and quality of surveys would have by now sufficiently emancipated with the times .Seasonal and sporadic pre -election surveys as we have today,would hardly fit into the much elevated standards that top surveys boast off and repeatedly deliver on accuracy. Transparency in polls is but one  element to check honesty of purpose but we should work as much toward scientifically engineered content that go to make up  complex surveys  that put out simple and understandable conclusions. 

Siesta post-reforms,is over

It took an eon for the govt.to desist from running hotels and bakeries.Goverment having seeded industrial growth at the turn of Independence,must now learn to withdraw in time for more efficient / accountable private enterprises to bear the torch of Industry.The USSR for long laboured under a state driven command economy.Faulty centralised  planning led to poor quality and outmoded designs .In the face of the rise of lesser but smarter private competition from Japan and S.Korea its economy collapsed .The bread queues in Moscow became longer.The USSR ultimately splintered. It is surviving largely on its oil/gas revenues.The China story was same till its industrial push and a deliberately undervalued currency resulted in a giant economic leap.But there too 65 % of its industries are run by the government and 80% of financial decisions in the economy  taken by political masters.Low cost of labour  and its exploitation  remain the hallmark of its industry. .China is now faced with ominous socio-politcal unrest.
        We are no better. Subsequent to the liberalisation of the ' 90s we have not thought of a 2nd phase follow up.Raj instincts of control/permit/license persist. Babus are reluctant to let go their fiefdoms.The national carrier Air India is sinking deeper on a daily basis.PSU Steel plants,with low global productivity rankings, are surviving on China`s huge appetite.Railways  eke out an unsteady existence with no funds left over for modernisation /upgrade.BSNL /MTNL are losing business paying idle staff.We must take away non-viable manufacturing / service from time serving bureaucrats and  label a " sell- by date " over each of  them to realise good value before takers become scarce.In a globalised economy business sense and bottom lines has to come first. 

Third Front-Great possibilities

The nation's economy is in disrepair with low growth and high inflation. Yet on the eve of a landmark national election,no party is has a legible economic manifesto. BJP's  touting good governance is no policy ,but merely an efficient vehicle with which to deliver one.Congress which ought to bear the onus of much that has gone awry in the economy, is busy delivering a variety of rights and largess. Except setting up empowered committees  to speed up things in general It has no road map to furiously re rail  the economy. It has left the RBI to hold the fort. 

                     It is here that the the Third Front could come in. Instead sequestering strength on pedantic visions of secular and other causes it has an opportunity to draw out a firm economic agenda to redeem the progress.After all it is the states that grow wealth and have a greater say on inter state facilitation of trade and taxes, land acquisition,labour regulation and so forth. The satraps of the TF could together evolve a common program predominantly to reroute economic recovery. This would take away the stress on routine socio-political rhetoric that has been the bane of earlier Fronts.The emphasis would then shift to an economic plane much like the eurozone theme through which each state can optimise its interests even as the nation benefits.It should then hardly matter as to who  its PM would be . With days left,such evolution of the Front may not be feasible.But the next time around ,with a bevy of high profile achievers in the group,we might be able to steer towards a paradigm shift in our Politico-Economics.
Pub Pioneer Mar 1
http://www.dailypioneer.com/letters-to-the-editor/front-economy.html#

Tiger by the tail

Modi ,the "Gujarat Mogul " had always been a clear outsider to both to the inner coterie of RSS and on the high table of the BJP.The prolonged inability of the Sangh Parivar to manage dissension within the party had propelled Modi  to his present pre eminence,despite  the widely held apprehensions on his autocratic dispensation.Should BJP by itself scores 230 plus ,RSS could perhaps grab the credit and claim some hold on Modi the PM. But a lesser performance , which appears to be a much greater possibility,will enable Modi to show case his political acumen in drumming up and sustaining a coalition. That would  show up Modi  in powerful light as an independent achiever.With governance as the watchword the Modi administration may not be amenable to the hindutva  line that had been the lifeblood of the Parivar. It is not that this scenario was not anticipated by both the RSS and the BJP, but the desperation of a decade without power has brushed aside their every other consideration ,individually or  as a collective.

IT-A different plane of business

The buy out of Whatsapp by Facebook at an astronomical sum underscores the phenomenal rise of  'innovative ' IT .FB itself , a pioneer of this business, is just 10 years old and now valued at $134 blln.It has a client base of 1.25 bln of which around 1 bln are mobile users. Whatsapp  with 450 mln mobile users and growing, may have some commercial leverage for FB  of which we are not yet aware. FB too is  perhaps less than  clear on a road map today as to how to carry this acquisition forward or the level  to which  Whatsapp may take it before another App intercedes to change the  script. . The esoteric world of IT operates in an abstract plane where evaluations have no collateral back up like fixed assets in  manufacturing or securities in financial services. FB  had a stutter in its IPO of 2012, opening  to  sharp drop in share value  to recover later, Both of which defies explanation by conventional accounting. Given this the 19 bln buy out   could appear highly notional  as the transaction is largely on stocks and much less cash, though IT companies have always been cash rich.In effect the IT sector has created a make believe world of its own for valuing a buy or a sale as their business is essentially driven with a crystal ball. This would be fine except that its currency of trade happens to be the same as regular brick and mortar businesses.Should a major bubble burst in this translucent  region of IT, which is highly probable, the conventional sectors stand bear a far disproportionate damage.

Pub Business Standard Feb 25
http://epaper.business-standard.com/bsepaper/svww_zoomart.php?Artname=20140225aT014101004&ileft=236&itop=1313&zoomRatio=181&AN=20140225aT014101004

Pub Deccan Herald Feb 25

Pub Tribune Mar 1
http://www.tribuneindia.com/2014/20140301/letters.htm
Pub Financial Express Mar 3
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/letters-to-the-editor-what-s-up-with-it-/1230588

Pub Telegraph Mar 6
http://www.telegraphindia.com/1140306/jsp/opinion/story_18034572.jsp#.UxfThj-SyNA

A teasing inflation

It is an enigma of the current monetary times that inflation is teasing world economies both ways- being  too low or too high ! .The US  had been unleashing massive  liquidity through  Quantitative Easing  for months on end and yet remains desperate for some welcome signs of inflation that could portend growth .  India, in spite of severely restricting money circulation ,at the cost of growth,is not able to contain a high and sustained inflation for two years running.. Fiscal profligacy of the US together with its virtual printing of dollars through QE  while debilitating  its economy, strangely strengthens its currency ! .The flood of dollars and a corresponding squeeze on rupee availability is thus  ending up in less dollars per rupee. 

      Persistent  imperfections in an international monetary system that is based on the use of a national currency as the world’s main reserve currency skews exchange rates which in normal times should spur trade to reset equilibrium.Sadly, even as the US is unable to generate demand , India is unable to step up supply due to poor growth,both nations being  bogged down on internal policy issues. China's economy is deflating, post an export boom and saddled with idle capacity.The euro zone keeps wrestling with  its  unresolved structural issues carried from birth. South American nations are into unbearably high  inflation levels burdened with huge fiscal deficits .The  remedy ought to lie in an universal resolve to  re-kindle world trade and place it at  a far higher orbit to enable regain global economic order which should see many an anomaly, inflation in particular, abate across economies.
Pub FIN EXPRESS FEB 24
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/letters-to-the-editor/1228682

UPA-II- tHE BIG iNFRA LET DOWN

The Vote on Account was a summary of an economy gone awry.Adamant inflation  managed to stun both the government and the RBI into a state of extended perplexity .Prolonged and elevated key rates have stifled growth and revenue. A recent study of a  some leading companies  in a spectrum of sectors, found that in FY 14 ,their summated gross debt as on Q3 FY 14 exceeds estimated total revenues FY 14 . Power, Infra and telcos come out the worst.It is a reflection on  the inter sector coordination / policy monitoring  gone awry, in a decent economy. Stasis  had followed in the aftermath of the  'spectrum   scam '  and the coal muddle .Structural drawbacks in the road infra projects ,in particular the overlap of accountability among Centre, State and oversight institutions ,became all the more acute as political will to take decisions faltered .In the paranoia induced by scams, the bureaucracy was loathe to take decisions.By the time the UPA-II recovered from its  administrative ennui, valuable time was lost. The damage done to the economy in the interim, spawned declining GDPs, vexatious CAD , a plunging rupee and  high  inflation.These ongoing fiscal and monetary anomalies across economies  are in part also due to  a wayward dollar and its profligate printer,the US. Some consolation that many Latin American countries are gasping  under 20 to 50 % inflation. Long gestation sectors entailing huge investments as power and infra, evidently lacked insightful follow up/ coordination /monitoring and  bold and determined piloting. In being remiss on this score, the UPA-II  induced a huge and on going  drag on the overall economy . This has dulled the shine on many of its  enviable welfare schemes .

Tale of two cats

.More than the Congress or the BJP ,it was AAP that was stunned at its 28 seat windfall.It set the stage for the inexplicable events that followed.Given the arithmetic of the assembly,no government could have lasted long. Congress extended the support to a minority government with no more reason than to spite the BJP..Instead of trying to form a government the BJP was too clever by half to abdicate ,hoping to expose Kejriwal's percieved weakness to govern. Given its tenuous electoral position and the suzerainty of the Centre over its legislative and police powers, governance could never have  never in the mind of a handicapped AAP. From day one,it had set its eyes to exit the stage as a martyr  using the Janlokpal as its famous last words. Like an Indian cinema ,fillers and drama were used in abundance to prolong audience interest.It quit when Box office collections were good.  AAP turned out to be strategically the cleverest of the three,like the monkey helping divide the cake for the two warring cats. Hope the tale is not replicated at the national elections.
Business Standard Feb 19
http://epaper.business-standard.com/bsepaper/svww_zoomart.php?Artname=20140219aT012101008&ileft=240&itop=1323&zoomRatio=184&AN=201402

Modern storytelling

MODERN RAJDHANI TALES

Nawabs and the Elf of the Pawns

For six decades two Nawabs ,into a world of their own,unceasingly played Shatranj . Engrossed in the game, governance of their realm suffered. On the board,the pawns were unhappy that to protect the king and his minister ,they were always sacrificed first .That night a defiant and determined elf enthused the pawns to empower themselves. The Capital gave a debut success to the pawns. The Nawabs were stunned to confront the revised rules of the game in the morning.These wizened ones did not panic and set about reading out the sub rules,both between the lines and that in small print, to the elf ..But a whiff of change had begun to blow . Neighbouring satraps are now a worried lot and those who hated to see each other, formed a Third Front. May be the elf and its pawns will triumph one day. That is what fairy tales are made of .How quickly the Elf covers the whole realm to pread his message is no doubt relevant ,but the intolerable inflation and the relentless fraying of the social fabric of a troubled nation , may sooner than later, drape the Tale in real- world robes. 

Culture moulded by the customer

It is of  significance that  as the grand Auto -Expo 2014 is on , the Maruti 800  stands retired, . The launch of the " 800 " was a Road-show  and a prelude to  India's wave of liberalsation  . Its smooth transmission, economical engine and a light body enabled by material science advances  and the cost benefits being shared with the customer through  economy  of scale,  made it an enviable product.Its acceptance was so complete that  there was little need to bring in variants to the basic model, for a decade and more.Indians are particular on maintenance , the low cost of repairs of M-800 thus became  its bonus USP.Much like the Ambassador with decades of presence,its spare parts though were available on tap in less than  three years from launch. Even the non-original spares obtained  in the open market at  lower prices were of acceptable quality ,mainly because of the demanding inspection standards set by Maruti across its vast vendor / sub-vendor base. Maruti's  penchant for training in  standard- module servicing  by franchisee garages, contributed to quick and  quality repairs which  added to the brand value. With its deep insight to after sales  service of every description,M-800  managed to retain customer loyalty  decades after introduction. Today ,higher incomes and greater competition bring in variety that  influences the taste and preference of a customer ,but his basic requirements that had helped predicate this '  Maruti culture '  remain  unchanged.

Pub Financial Express Feb 10
http://epaper.financialexpress.com/226739/Indian-Express/10-February-2014#page/6/3

Push savings ,now

We  had chosen to hike key policy rates year after year to controlling inflation that  has sadly remained  untamed and we  steadily  lost growth.There is strong empirical relationship between growth and savings in a progressive economy.That savings is a function of income or that investment was driven by the “animal spirits”  or that savings was a “leakage” from the expenditure stream made up of consumption, investment, and government spending, is past validity.India's household savings, which have fueled growth over the last few years, have dropped from 11.63% of GDP in 2007-08 to 10% in '10-11 and to a 22 year low of 7.8 % in '11-12 .These levels do not portend well at all for the economy.

            What had given stability and strength to our economy till recently, is that around 70 percent of  the country’s  savings comes  from the  household  sector,yet  these  carry  rates of return that barely cover inflation which further eats into  disposable incomes. .Poor incentives  force savings towards physical assets like gold and land.Large savings  help   leverage capital that provide funds for investment and potential business  and so, economic growth.With the Central government now in transition, a formal budget that may or may not underscore savings is too far away .We  stand to lose vitally needed  time  for economic rebound There is a strong case for spurring savings in big way ,without any further delay .

            There is a narrow window  left for the   UPA-II  to immediately announce big ticket savings incentives.  Large scale  generation of savings while  favourably impacting inflation, would also enable the  RBI to start easing  key rates and a long overdue signal  to return to growth. 

Brand vs Brilliance

There is raising of eye brows that the new CEO of Microsoft is not an IITian !. Over time IITs have become strait jacketed in mass producing excellence.But this has not restricted other and ' lesser ' institutions in contributing to brilliance. Satya Nadella is one of such product.What is remarkable , in this era of relentless pursuit of individual careers and   hopping on to disparate job contents, Nadella has has stuck  with one company to persevere for  22 long years ,to be a Titan .Whereat, pedigreed IITians have only managed to, become big, may be in  much larger numbers, on the wings of  a generic brand value .This brand too has been finding greater acceptance on Wall Street or in IT start ups and less in premiere engineering / scientific research institutions, In these six plus decades of IITs ,in an era of ever exploding  scientific ken,its alumni has negligible contributions to either cutting edge technologies or through great scientific papers. Perhaps to screen this deep set angst ,the nation  seeks out small vindications  through the success of men of Indian origin elsewhere.

Pub Financial Express Feb 8

http://www.financialexpress.com/news/letters-to-the-editor-nadella-s-rise/1224107.
Pub-The Pioneer Feb 10
http://www.dailypioneer.com/letters-to-the-editor/iits-are-great-but-they-dont-create-nadellas.html

Faulted as a nation

The absence of Delhites per se, on Saturday's protest at Lajpat Nagar against the ethnic / racist attack against one of our  north eastern  denizen, is  inexplicable.Where was the spontaneity displayed earlier  in the anti corruption stirs by  Capital's younger generation .The dharna in front of the CM's house by a much wider cross section on Sunday, would look almost an afterthought.Corruption is at best an acquired evil that might yet be eradicated.But racist perceptions would seem to be part of our inherited social value system.A liberated youth fights for gay rights but is diffident in expressing itself against such  archaic mores, set much deeper within us. Our politicians  would rather politicize the issue for transient gains than unitedly battle a malady that could turn cancerous over time ,by default.Today we stand  seriously faulted as a nation.

DYNASTY,PARIVAR ,MOHALLA

The idea of conducting " primaries "  by Rahul Gandhi represents a  seminal step forward towards  participative democracy in a " dynasty "run outfit  . It has perhaps come rather late.The AAP stands  credited today for  this " mohalla   centric " political theme.That said BJP under a RSS hegemony would perhaps take ages to even contemplate this.  Rahul in fact had broadly mooted this when anointed the VP  quite a while back and had this mantra  been experimented  with in the recent set of assembly elections, the Congress might have perhaps done  better at the hustings.It would have also garnered  greater credibility today,on the eve of the 2014 polls to match a political parvenu as the AAP. Should Congress pursue  'primaries 'as these, it could well help re rail itself. It might even  stand it in good stead ,if not  now, but surely  down the line.As for the Parivar , flexibility in any form  shall  remain an alien concept.