Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Selecting judges

Till 1993, judges were appointed by the executive in consultation with the judiciary but the judicial voice was neither dominant nor decisive.The executive's angst for a 'committed judiciary ',quickened the genesis of the Collegium,giving rise to a brotherhood ”consensus wherein middle-of-the-road appointments edged out better talent. The current judgment of the Apex court could also be seen posited with the new government's questionable choice of heads of various important institutions .The political class has much heights left to elevate itself. Hopefully the judiciary too would listen to words of its lone dissenting judge ,quoting Macaulay’s dictum, “Reform that you may preserve. " .Perhaps the time is not yet ripe for a considered finality on judicial appointments ,given the hiatus between a restive government and an apprehensive Apex court.

Born polarised

Born as this nation was in 1947 , through polarisation, it is perhaps destined to live with it. That this ethos gets accentuated during elections should rather be seen in the context of the freedom of the minority to exercise its franchise to the extent of being acknowledged as a determinant factor. .And that can not be said for many other nations around us, that attained freedom from foreign rule around the same time but are still swayed by mono - ideological themes. In vying for due political space by leveraging caste or creed , aberrations will occur under a liberal democracy as ours, That said, leaders of the day ought always to toe the spirit of our constitution that protects the right to life and liberty of every citizen . More importantly they should be seen to carry through this onus , elections or not .

Taxing governance

.The current BJP government has a worrying tendency to revising its stand be it on important policy pronouncements or even major Bills . Worse still, it can not make up its mind while addressing major corporate tax issues . The steady pile up of contentious assessment ,be it Vodafone and others and now Sanofi ,are an indication of a nebulous administration. This is the outcome of a mindset fixated on a unipolar governance ,that tends to ride rough shod over all else. Be it the farmer and his land,autonomy and key institutions ,citizen and right to free expression ,tax policies and transparency and so on,the government would like to have its way .Yet professing fair play and level playing field. Perhaps the experience of the ministers is unable to overtake their enthusiasm ,whereby differing but honest view points of the senior beauracracy are not accommodated ,resulting in faulty policy formulations . The aberration then continues by way of prolonged litigation to drag the issue till it get resolved in court or arbitration . Precious time is lost and ultimately ,there are no winners .

Savings

.Modern day economics is way too skewed than it was three decades ago . We are worried over Fed increasing rates and irritated as to why RBI is delaying reduction !.. Monetary measures, seek to increase the supply of credit and not to increase the supply of money to the economy. Central banks are not equipped to increase the level of reserves in the banking system by wishing it. They can merely create ledger money in an attempt to cajole the banking system into normalcy, For close to two years now,RBI has been unsuccessful . Social issues, such as rising income inequality and household indebtedness, are related to the rise of finance into an unprecedentedly dominant force .This is further skewed by the entire finance industry getting preferential treatment from the government -- be it the massive bailouts or the right to borrow massive amounts of relatively free money from the Central Banks, Worse, banks sit on piles of idle cash but do not loan it out into the economy because they are worried about their balance sheets .And this where household savings become vital as it instantly funds our economy that is more dependent on savings,than ever before

China and India

.The vast disparity between the two nations ,be it the GDP,scales of production,the rate of household savings that fund growth ,the rate of inflation , percentage of unemployment , percentage below poverty line and more ,are vital parameters to reckon before we even contemplate to to cash in on perceived woes of China, In each of these we stand immensely outclassed .We are seeing our stocks dive even with our $5trln economy (PPP terms) on a mere sneeze from a $14 trln one !. The one area we could conceivably usurp the hold of China In the course of their current economic / monetary upheaval,,is manufacturing big,medium and small.But look at the comparative figures ,industry contribution to GDP is 44 % to 26; industrial growth 7.5 % to 1.9 ;exports $2.5 trln ( largely electrical and other machinery and we have none ) to our 350 bln .We do not possess the vast array export items they have and the massive base of MSMEs they possess ,that can quickly adjust to fluctuations in demand unlike large entities .That said , with all the plunge in price of inputs as oil and ore ,our steel makers are unable to profit as China's capacity at 882 MTPA simply dwarfs our 86 .Even a devalued rupee is of little help against the might of China.

Deep shadows of Left

As was expected, the TMC has swept Bengal civic body elections .The CPI(M)-led West Bengal experiment in its later phase ,far from being a weapon of class struggle and its initial promise of providing the masses with urgent relief ,went overboard in resisting industrialisation in the state.It was a fatal deviation that ended its three decade rule.But in the process it created a mercenary cadre that had since switched allegiance to the TMC ,to ensure electoral annihilation of opponents .This portends yet another long era of political wilderness for Bengal ,where no space would exist for any other party.The state may have switched its master after three decades of pent up hope ,but may well be unable to alter its Fate ,for a long while yet.

Dollar rides an uncertain tide

Riding quietly on the back of dramatic reduction of key rates ,the Governor .RBI had also outlined the framework for easing limit on foreign institutional holdings of government notes now to be denominated in rupees instead of dollars and the cap will be raised in phases to 5 percent of outstanding debt by March 2018 and that the increase will help attract 1.2 trillion rupees of additional investment. That said , global economy has been unsettled by violent and unpredictable fluctuations in most major currencies. This has brought international trade and financial investment to its knees.The dollar ,that has been on the edge far too long because of the US Fed lingering,needs to find stability fast and sooner the Fed revises its rate,the earlier cross currency instability will abate and a much needed equilibrium reached. Lower domestic rates and even a liberalized the Bond market may not provide the desired upsurge to our economy ,so long as the reserve currency,the dollar rides an uncertain tide.