Tuesday, October 27, 2015

Selecting judges

Till 1993, judges were appointed by the executive in consultation with the judiciary but the judicial voice was neither dominant nor decisive.The executive's angst for a 'committed judiciary ',quickened the genesis of the Collegium,giving rise to a brotherhood ”consensus wherein middle-of-the-road appointments edged out better talent. The current judgment of the Apex court could also be seen posited with the new government's questionable choice of heads of various important institutions .The political class has much heights left to elevate itself. Hopefully the judiciary too would listen to words of its lone dissenting judge ,quoting Macaulay’s dictum, “Reform that you may preserve. " .Perhaps the time is not yet ripe for a considered finality on judicial appointments ,given the hiatus between a restive government and an apprehensive Apex court.

Born polarised

Born as this nation was in 1947 , through polarisation, it is perhaps destined to live with it. That this ethos gets accentuated during elections should rather be seen in the context of the freedom of the minority to exercise its franchise to the extent of being acknowledged as a determinant factor. .And that can not be said for many other nations around us, that attained freedom from foreign rule around the same time but are still swayed by mono - ideological themes. In vying for due political space by leveraging caste or creed , aberrations will occur under a liberal democracy as ours, That said, leaders of the day ought always to toe the spirit of our constitution that protects the right to life and liberty of every citizen . More importantly they should be seen to carry through this onus , elections or not .

Taxing governance

.The current BJP government has a worrying tendency to revising its stand be it on important policy pronouncements or even major Bills . Worse still, it can not make up its mind while addressing major corporate tax issues . The steady pile up of contentious assessment ,be it Vodafone and others and now Sanofi ,are an indication of a nebulous administration. This is the outcome of a mindset fixated on a unipolar governance ,that tends to ride rough shod over all else. Be it the farmer and his land,autonomy and key institutions ,citizen and right to free expression ,tax policies and transparency and so on,the government would like to have its way .Yet professing fair play and level playing field. Perhaps the experience of the ministers is unable to overtake their enthusiasm ,whereby differing but honest view points of the senior beauracracy are not accommodated ,resulting in faulty policy formulations . The aberration then continues by way of prolonged litigation to drag the issue till it get resolved in court or arbitration . Precious time is lost and ultimately ,there are no winners .

Savings

.Modern day economics is way too skewed than it was three decades ago . We are worried over Fed increasing rates and irritated as to why RBI is delaying reduction !.. Monetary measures, seek to increase the supply of credit and not to increase the supply of money to the economy. Central banks are not equipped to increase the level of reserves in the banking system by wishing it. They can merely create ledger money in an attempt to cajole the banking system into normalcy, For close to two years now,RBI has been unsuccessful . Social issues, such as rising income inequality and household indebtedness, are related to the rise of finance into an unprecedentedly dominant force .This is further skewed by the entire finance industry getting preferential treatment from the government -- be it the massive bailouts or the right to borrow massive amounts of relatively free money from the Central Banks, Worse, banks sit on piles of idle cash but do not loan it out into the economy because they are worried about their balance sheets .And this where household savings become vital as it instantly funds our economy that is more dependent on savings,than ever before

China and India

.The vast disparity between the two nations ,be it the GDP,scales of production,the rate of household savings that fund growth ,the rate of inflation , percentage of unemployment , percentage below poverty line and more ,are vital parameters to reckon before we even contemplate to to cash in on perceived woes of China, In each of these we stand immensely outclassed .We are seeing our stocks dive even with our $5trln economy (PPP terms) on a mere sneeze from a $14 trln one !. The one area we could conceivably usurp the hold of China In the course of their current economic / monetary upheaval,,is manufacturing big,medium and small.But look at the comparative figures ,industry contribution to GDP is 44 % to 26; industrial growth 7.5 % to 1.9 ;exports $2.5 trln ( largely electrical and other machinery and we have none ) to our 350 bln .We do not possess the vast array export items they have and the massive base of MSMEs they possess ,that can quickly adjust to fluctuations in demand unlike large entities .That said , with all the plunge in price of inputs as oil and ore ,our steel makers are unable to profit as China's capacity at 882 MTPA simply dwarfs our 86 .Even a devalued rupee is of little help against the might of China.

Deep shadows of Left

As was expected, the TMC has swept Bengal civic body elections .The CPI(M)-led West Bengal experiment in its later phase ,far from being a weapon of class struggle and its initial promise of providing the masses with urgent relief ,went overboard in resisting industrialisation in the state.It was a fatal deviation that ended its three decade rule.But in the process it created a mercenary cadre that had since switched allegiance to the TMC ,to ensure electoral annihilation of opponents .This portends yet another long era of political wilderness for Bengal ,where no space would exist for any other party.The state may have switched its master after three decades of pent up hope ,but may well be unable to alter its Fate ,for a long while yet.

Dollar rides an uncertain tide

Riding quietly on the back of dramatic reduction of key rates ,the Governor .RBI had also outlined the framework for easing limit on foreign institutional holdings of government notes now to be denominated in rupees instead of dollars and the cap will be raised in phases to 5 percent of outstanding debt by March 2018 and that the increase will help attract 1.2 trillion rupees of additional investment. That said , global economy has been unsettled by violent and unpredictable fluctuations in most major currencies. This has brought international trade and financial investment to its knees.The dollar ,that has been on the edge far too long because of the US Fed lingering,needs to find stability fast and sooner the Fed revises its rate,the earlier cross currency instability will abate and a much needed equilibrium reached. Lower domestic rates and even a liberalized the Bond market may not provide the desired upsurge to our economy ,so long as the reserve currency,the dollar rides an uncertain tide.

Aadhar,promote it

>8.We live in an age of “big data.” . Exponential advances in harvesting of large data sets and the use of intricate analytical algorithms,clearly implicate privacy concerns. The sheer spread of data creates enormous value for the global economy, driving innovation, productivity, efficiency, and growth An ideal model is where the benefits of generated data are balanced against individual privacy rights and to determine whether their processing be justified on legitimate business interest or be subject to individual consent, Aadhar clearly ,is not ubiquitous , but the danger of abuse of privacy is ever present . Firewalls are being engineered by the hour , world over , to guard data privacy and there is no reason why UID would remain vulnerable to ill considered exploitation .

Economics Nobel

In 1776 Adam Smith, postulated that the existence of economic prosperity ,more than persistence of poverty , should need attention. An eon was then spent on identifying conditions necessary for wealth-creation. That did not suffice and ,another era was spent on the burning issue of distribution of income between capital and labour .But today wealth is largely created by innovation and technology, like Whatsapp at $ 20 blln with 60 odd people in a garage .And that further skews the distribution of wealth and income,a phenomenon that will endure . This brings us to the next phase on understanding poverty with Prof Deaton whose approach to economics is primarily on data analytics .This could be daunting task for emerging analytical economists who would be beset with the ever expanding Big Data that demands extraordinary insights into interpreting them effectively and with assurance We have journeyed long , from distribution of wealth to income to poverty .It may take ages for socio -economists to even grasp the concept of distribution of happiness.

Project planning

The road infra projects are but part of the command economy syndrome of the sixties.Old drawbacks persist ; either the tendering process is incomplete, or the terms and conditions are unclear, or lengthy litigations and local political interference, or simply a lack of policy and management co-ordination, stalling projects midway and left hanging till things are sorted out. One reason why private funds have largely shied away from infrastructure projects in general. As the outlays are huge ,public money is rendered unproductive and lending banks stare at enormous NPAs.The government thus battles on many fronts : growth retarded by stalled infra,unproductive assets that give no returns ,PSU banks with poor balance sheets and worse, reduced liquidity to service the economy.By granting one time financial assistance to stalled projects ,the government is addressing only a part of the problem that of freeing idling assets .But what about a thorough overhaul of its own outdated relic of professional project management .Seminars will not do. llll. R.Narayanan ,Ghaziabad . lllllll
.Till 1993, judges were appointed by the executive in consultation with the judiciary but the judicial voice was neither dominant nor decisive.The executive's angst for a 'committed judiciary ',quickened the genesis of the Collegium,giving rise to a brotherhood ”consensus wherein middle-of-the-road appointments edged out better talent. The current judgment of the Apex court could also be seen posited with the new government's questionable choice of heads of various important institutions .The political class has much heights left to elevate itself. Hopefully the judiciary too would listen to words of its lone dissenting judge ,quoting Macaulay’s dictum, “Reform that you may preserve. " .Perhaps the time is not yet ripe for a considered finality on judicial appointments ,given the hiatus between a restive government and an apprehensive Apex court.

Nurturing skills

The steel pioneer TATA ,had nurtured its labour , whose strained skills then helped sustain the later day PSU giants .The prosperous private steel makers, then grew on this rich skill base built over time .It takes an eon to learn skills ,together with the foresight to nurture them.Modern day approach to skilling is hollow .The Japanese management jargon of the Maruti plant of the ' 80s , had for decades misted its labour policies ,with 40 % of workers employed on temporary basis for cost savings ,with scant regard to preserve skills .Managements would rather think of shifting plants elsewhere than interact with with the worker to safeguard his interests and in the process, the skill banks that need constant upgrade on the job .Why lament the lack of skill, /dedication in Indian labour ,when we treat them as mere wage earners and not as artisans .Without a wider perspective as this,no program can be fruitful .

RBI's El Nino moment

.Central Banks world over,are much like weather watchers that analyse universal and endemic data /trends to assess forthcoming economic scenario . More than an open fisted rate cut announced by Governor RBI, on Tuesday, his indication of a favourable ' El Nino ' for the Indian economy would assist market sentiments. While he may cajole the monetary monsoons to be generous, the government has much work on its hands.The reservoirs are worryingly silted with NPA s to reduce effective capacity and the distribution canal network do not yet,reach marginal stakeholders in the economy. Though there was ample liquidity ,banks were hesitant to lend fretting over their balance sheets.This is likely to change with the RBI 's rosier projections on growth,although it trimmed GDP forecast from 7.6 to 7.4 %..Our markets are mature enough to factor in all this and its initial exuberance duly toned down before closing ,yesterday and the trend has persisted .

Monday, October 26, 2015

colours of corruption

The ethos of political parties today seem to be streaked with corruptive colours of rust , though to differing shades .Increasingly this colour ,being woven into their leitmotif ,to the extent that even as one adopts it as compulsion of coalition,the other does so on the need for party cohesion !.While the two have been dictated by their head, even the promising debutant AAP ,seems to follow the same path but through the heart, much like a teenage rebel . Indian Democracy seems to have been practically usurped by parties and little is left to the common man who is content at being given the sop of periodic elections .And thereafter , any which changed dispensation ,does little to graduate from base levels .The one tool, the RTI, is allowed operation on a selective basis at the mercy of a willing beaurocracy..The citizen remains the puppet for which he too must share considerable blame. Political doyens, media and observers can only advice from the sidelines as the parties freely go about scheming for increased tallies in elections of every kind, that seem to go on ceaselessly across national arenas .

True democracy

An African -American of Kenyan origin becomes a senator of a US state,fails to make it to the House of Representatives and yet is elected to the highest office of the land in the first attempt. Now an Indian American, already a state governor ,has announced his plans to run for the President of the US .More than the individuals, it reflects on the basic strengths of a nation that not only believes in equality of opportunity for all but practices it with equal verve .We who lay no less claim to being a bigger democracy in size ,found it anathema to see an Indian citizen of foreign origin ,duly elected as an MP,as a prospective PM. We might even exult in owning an expatriate Jindal should he be anointed to high office next year , but are we not as ready to disown the resident ones ,just because he or she holds a different view point.