Saturday, February 22, 2014

A teasing inflation

It is an enigma of the current monetary times that inflation is teasing world economies both ways- being  too low or too high ! .The US  had been unleashing massive  liquidity through  Quantitative Easing  for months on end and yet remains desperate for some welcome signs of inflation that could portend growth .  India, in spite of severely restricting money circulation ,at the cost of growth,is not able to contain a high and sustained inflation for two years running.. Fiscal profligacy of the US together with its virtual printing of dollars through QE  while debilitating  its economy, strangely strengthens its currency ! .The flood of dollars and a corresponding squeeze on rupee availability is thus  ending up in less dollars per rupee. 
      Persistent  imperfections in an international monetary system that is based on the use of a national currency as the world’s main reserve currency skews exchange rates which in normal times should spur trade to reset equilibrium.Sadly, even as the US is unable to generate demand , India is unable to step up supply due to poor growth,both nations being  bogged down on internal policy issues. China's economy is deflating, post an export boom and saddled with idle capacity.The euro zone keeps wrestling with  its  unresolved structural issues carried from birth. South American nations are into unbearably high  inflation levels burdened with huge fiscal deficits .The  remedy ought to lie in an universal resolve to  re-kindle world trade and place it at  a far higher orbit to enable regain global economic order which should see many an anomaly, inflation in particular, abate across economies.
Pub FIN EXPRESS FEB 24
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/letters-to-the-editor/1228682

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