Monday, September 22, 2014

Beware the fatal wake of EU

Nations go through economic cycles. The US economy  re railing itself  after six years of struggle is  forecast to grow 3% in 2014,and  Japan after two full decades ,at 1.8%.  China will touch around 7% in 2014–15,  Brazil, Russia and India, are are in contention with  structural reforms  to regain the lost growth trajectory .All these nations are in command over their own monetary / fiscal policies and over time  will help predicate global growth , But not so the eurozone, that contributes as  high as 25 % to world trade.Shackled at birth, the EU has a single monetary policy and 11 different fiscal policies.That was the genesis of the great euro debt that at $14 trlln  equals the US .Germany may reach  respectable growth this year,  Italy, France and Spain.will remain very weak at around 0.5%.
         When the EU currency was created in 1998  it was suspected that  this could prove a recipe for individual profligacy of euro countries that are able to borrow at lower rates than their ability to repay.   There is little doubt that the  euro economic tale would continue to twist . Germany's reluctance to act as the family head and lift up other members, is already dragging down its own economy.Even Britain , in spite of being a non-EU economy, is suffering no less due to its age old geographic ties with the group.The only hope for the EU nations lies in either a dramatic economic recovery of all others  in  quick time  to enable dissolve / ameliorate  their huge debt burden by sheer sentiment or the Euro  boat  capsizes leaving some to sink and others to swim to shore.The global collective can no longer afford to merely watch as the EU totters from one crisis to another and in the end, its fatal wake pulls down many more

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