Wednesday, October 22, 2014

Yellow fever

Purchases of gold by the two largest sources of demand for gold, India and China, have fallen sharply ,abruptly halting a consumption boom that started six years ago with the onset of the financial crisis. Gold prices, just over $1600 an ounce  not too long ago, are now  way below their all-time high of $1920 .With weakening Indian and Chinese demand, and a price stagnating , speculative demand for gold may be poised to collapse, triggering a self-reinforcing downward spiral. That’s what happened after gold peaked at about $900 an ounce in the early 1980s, ushering in a long downward slide in which gold lost almost 75% of its peak value. That process was helped by historically high real interest rates, could mean that the current gold bubble  may burst even with historically low  rates.
Two opposing  market segments that are dominated by inconsistent expectations. Bond markets are dominated by one of low inflation, while gold markets ;commodities, futures,  on medium-term hyperinflation. With generous doses of Quantitative Easing  in the US , the price of gold could now be highly volatile and tending down. It is very difficult to explain the apparently inconsistent expectations underlying the bond markets and the gold markets and abundant caution may well lie in selling.And that comes with even more unstable gold pricing.

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