Tuesday, June 9, 2015

economy at cross roads

.Dr Desai is right , UPA-II did manage to deliver growth through gradualism in policy ,only to be muted by gross lapses in implementation.In contrast, the growth mantra that blessed political fortunes of  BJP is to yet  propitiate the deities of Economy. BJP's "auction syndrome " ,perhaps more in selective disassociation with actions of UPA,  is being pursued with  speed and elan, to ostensibly  fibrillate and  regain a healthy pulse.But there could be booby traps down the road. 
     First the  existing huge exposure of PSU banks to the infra sector  stands to explode on fresh demand ,post  quick fire big ticket auctions everywhere.Already PSU banks are ailing from high NPAs. Big business houses are yet to figure in the list .Their reports  due next quarter, may add to the woes, since global economic recovery particularly of the US ,is still uncertain .Restructuring the debts then , would invite a protracted  burden on the exchequer and hit  fiscal balancing for far longer.Then again treacherous crude prices could skew the ledger further.
        Second ,high costs of acquisition  of vital resources,touted today as a  bounty,would shoot up input prices to every single industry to  open the floodgates for inflation .Exploitation of sub subterranean resources come with inbuilt and long gestation periods and advantages through economies of scale, would only kick in, far later.
        If  in  the single minded pursuit to control of inflation , the PM ,Ms Thatcher in the  '80s overlooked growth , all but abandoned UK's industrial policy and wiped out more than 15% of Britain's industrial base on bad  monetarism, we today, might well be doing the opposite, singularly pursuing growth,  to re- invite a larger avatar of an  inflation that we are bitterly engaged with, for more than three years now. 

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