Tuesday, December 31, 2013

Threshold 2014- Stepping in terpidation

The weather  in the Capital at the threshold of a new year,is reflective of the state of the nation's economy,uncomfortably cold. The employment scenario is still keeping us away from a technical stagflation,even as the other two criteria, slow growth and  rapidly rising consumer prices are attempting to push us into one.A sub 5 % GDP ,with WPI  peaking to 7.52 % and CPI to 11.24 % and  record low of the rupee in 2013,can perhaps help to show 2014 in some better light.That said the monetary policy continues to be wielded to fight inflation at the cost of growth.More worrying  should be the changing political dispensation that  is patently averse to fiscal conservatism .Delhi  has just led the way with  "  utility empowerment "  and  the Centre likewise  going soft yesterday on gas cylinder subsidy. The MSP on grains is already at record levels and the States do so on cane procurement. Inclusive social schemes that do not raise productivity has been a bane for quite a while.In the face of all this the fiscal deficit will be adrift .Crude prices that are benign today may not be so down the road. The resultant spike in Inflation  will put growth recovery in greater straits to tweak the  CAD and a plunge of the rupee.Till the 2014 elections the nation is destined to travel its perilous economic path. What results the elections throw up is another saga in itself
ET Jan 1 http://epaper.timesofindia.com/Default/Scripting/ArticleWin.asp?From=Archive&Source=Page&Skin=ETNEW&BaseHref=ETM/2014/01/01&PageLabel=12&EntityId=A
FE Jan 2
http://epaper.financialexpress.com/207112/Indian-Express/02-January-2014#page/6/3

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