Companions in Hubris

 The Exit polls have made the political and stock markets beehives , frenetic.True interpretation of statistics lies  more in what it hides than reveals.Opinion / Exit polls may well have matured over time in improved projection of vote share from sample size to actuals. The problem  in a highly segmented electorate,lies  in deducing the seat share from the vote percentages. In endemic assembly polls where combination of pre-poll allies has closely associated regional factors and hence amenable to more rational analysis, the LS poll provides no such leverage to poll gurus. In the 2004 LS polls the AIADMK had a 30 % vote share with nil seats and in 2009 ,with 23 % had 9 seats!.Let us therefore take the 2014 exit poll predictions merely as another exercise in an attempt to improve the hit rate. May be the  vicious polarization of electorate this time round ,has helped sharpen the contours of perception to the advantage of  the poll pundits .Indian bourses are  known for their high speculative  bent and may be pleased  find an equally exuberant ally in the Exit polls.This is a heady combination and  May 16  will perhaps help educate both the pollster and the investor a little more in their unending travel to graduation.

Pub Fin Exp May 15
http://www.financialexpress.com/news/letters-to-the-editor/1250894
Pub Bus Std May 15
http://epaper.business-standard.com/bsepaper/svww_zoomart.php?Artname=20140515aT010101006&ileft=243&itop=1324&zoomRatio=184&AN=20140515aT010101006